Perhaps these pollsters should take a closer look at their own polls. The polls did pretty well! The ‘traditional’ polls did *really* well. For example, Nate Cohn from the NYT argued: “I’m surprised by the amount of griping about the polling that I’m seeing. Most pundits and pollsters got it wrong in 2018, 2020, and 2022–not because their artificial intelligence systems failed, but because none of us can learn if we cut off true facts and hide in a haze of denial. However, media pundits and forecasters jam weaker outlets and partisan pollsters with reputable institutions together in their analysis.ĭuring an interview last month, the Trafalgar Group’s founder Robert Cahaly said that he “wants to be right more than anything” and to be “the Elon Musk of polling.” ![]() Some such as the Harris Poll and Morning Consult are rather nuanced and accurate. ![]() Great expert resources such as the National Opinion Research Center, Pew, and Edelman have better methods, larger samples, and avoid daily headline-driven overnight readings. Unfortunately, closer to home, many media commentators regard the election forecasts put out by the domestic political polling industry as the product of highly sophisticated data analysis, providing breathless horse-race coverage based on who is up and who is down in the most recent poll, when in reality their practices often veer more towards unsupported assumptions and sophistry. Quantitative statistics and data can often present ambiguous situations with a veneer of objective, unimpeachable fact–which makes it even more disappointing when statistical integrity is twisted or misunderstood.įor the past nine months, we have worked assiduously to correct the false numerical narratives of Putin’s propaganda on everything ranging from dubious Russian national income statistics to the number of companies that have actually pulled out of Russia to the supposed resilience of the Russian economy.
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